NBA Eastern Conference playoff setup: What the first round will look like

The NBA’s regular season ends a week from Thursday, and the postseason picture is coming into sharper focus each day. Here’s how we see the battles for the Eastern Conference playoff seeds playing out and our predictions for what the first-round matchups will look like.

Top seed contenders: Bulls, Heat

Key game: Chicago at Miami, Thursday

Outlook: The Heat trail the Bulls by 2.5 games, so Miami faces an uphill battle to earn the top seed. Still, Chicago’s loss to the Wizards at home on Monday opens the door for the Heat. If the Heat can beat the Bulls in Miami this week, they will even the season series.

Even with a loss on Thursday, though, Chicago will only need to win three of its other final five games (at Charlotte, vs. Dallas, at Indiana, vs. Cleveland) to force the Heat to win all six of their remaining games to claim the top spot. That could give the Heat an edge in the second tiebreaker (conference record), and if the teams wind up tied there, the top seed will be given based on winning percentage against other playoff teams.

No. 4 and No. 5 seed contenders: Celtics, Hawks, Magic
Key game: Boston at Atlanta, Friday

Outlook: The Celtics still have Atlanta and Orlando on the schedule, but they have already clinched the tiebreaker over both. Boston’s remaining schedule is tough (vs. Orlando, at Atlanta, vs. Miami, vs. Milwaukee), but if the Celtics can win three of the final four, including in Atlanta, that should be good enough to secure the fourth seed and homecourt advantage in the first round. The Hawks beat the Magic three times this year and have all five remaining games at home.

Considering Orlando will likely finish the season without Dwight Howard and have four of its five remaining games on the road, the Magic can be penciled in at No. 6, with Atlanta No. 5 behind the Celtics.

Bottom of the bracket contenders: Knicks, 76ers, Bucks
Key game: Philadelphia at Milwaukee, April 25

Outlook: Despite losing two key games to the Knicks in the last three weeks, the Bucks are not dead yet. The Knicks could be out of reach because they’re likely to win a tiebreaker with Milwaukee based on conference record, and the Knicks own the tiebreaker over Philadelphia, too. But for the Bucks, the Sixers can be had, especially if Milwaukee can win at home on the 25th and secure the tiebreaker. A reasonable finish for the Bucks would be 4-2 (at Washington, at Indiana, vs. New Jersey, vs. Toronto, vs. Philadelphia, at Boston), which would get them to 33-33. Problem is, the Bucks keep coming up short when the pressure is highest.

The Sixers close with a five-game road trip (Cleveland, Indiana, New Jersey, Milwaukee, Detroit), and though there are some lottery-bound teams in that mix, it’s not hard to imagine the struggling Sixers dropping four of those five games to miss out on the postseason altogether.

East first-round forecast
(1) Chicago vs. (8) Milwaukee

(2) Miami vs. (7) New York

(3) Indiana vs. (6) Orlando

(4) Boston vs. (5) Atlanta