NBA Western Conference playoff setup: What the first round will look like

The NBA’s regular season ends a week from Thursday, and the postseason picture is coming into sharper focus each day. Here’s how we see the battles for the Western Conference playoff seeds playing out and our predictions for what the first-round matchups will look like.

Top seed contenders: Thunder, Spurs

Key game: San Antonio at Phoenix, April 25

Outlook: Having seen enough of coach Gregg Popovich over the years—and in this lockout-shortened season—it is hard to imagine him imploring his team to make a final push for the top seed. Still, the seed is there for the taking for the Spurs, who hold the tiebreaker over the Thunder. But after beating the Lakers last night, the Spurs still have six more games (three-back-to-backs) in the final eight days, and you can expect Popovich to put rest ahead of seeding. That will make the Spurs vulnerable to a motivated team like the Suns on the next-to-last day of the regular season, and open the door for the Thunder.

But Oklahoma City’s remaining slate (at Phoenix, at Sacramento, at L.A. Lakers, vs. Sacramento, vs. Denver) is tough, too, and the Spurs have the edge since they own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Pacific Division title contenders: Lakers, Clippers
Key game: L.A. Lakers at San Antonio, Friday

Outlook: The Clippers have been pretty persistent in their pursuit of the Lakers, but, other than pride, there’s not a whole lot at stake here. The winner winds up with the No. 3 seed and avoids a tough matchup against the Grizzlies in the first round, but that’s probably it.

Both teams finish with tough schedules. The Lakers (at Golden State, at San Antonio, vs. Oklahoma City, at Sacramento) have the tiebreaker on the Clippers, and thus, the edge. The Clippers (at Denver, at Phoenix, vs. New Orleans, at Atlanta, at New York) will be on the road a lot over the final eight days, playing four playoff contenders in that span.

No. 6 seed contenders: Nuggets, Mavericks
Key game: L.A. Clippers at Denver, Wednesday

Outlook: The Mavericks are still in the hunt for the No. 6 seed, but the triple-overtime loss to the Jazz on Monday was a big blow—one that casts doubt on the defending champs’ playoff status in general. If the Mavericks fail to at least split their four remaining games (vs. Houston, vs. Golden State, at Chicago, at Atlanta), they could wind up out of the postseason altogether, joining the 1999 Bulls and the 1970 Celtics as the only defending champs to miss the playoffs. That’s still a longshot, though, because the Mavericks own a tiebreaker edge over all four teams trying to dislodge them from the postseason.

But the Nuggets probably will win at least three of their final five games (vs. L.A. Clippers, at Phoenix, vs. Orlando, at Oklahoma City, at Minnesota), and that should be enough to grab No. 6 ahead of the Mavs.

Bottom of the bracket contenders: Suns, Rockets, Jazz
Key game: Phoenix at Utah, April 24

Outlook: Assuming the Mavericks can hold steady to close the year, there will be a three-way battle for the final spot in the conference. The Rockets’ current four-game losing streak could well doom their chances, with three of their final five games on the road. Houston lost the season series to Utah and would likely lose out to Phoenix on the conference record tiebreaker, meaning the Rockets will need a miracle finish to slip into the No. 8 spot.

Barring that, Phoenix and Utah are left battling for that spot, with the Suns already up a game in the loss column and having clinched the tiebreaker over the Jazz. Utah could win its final four games (at Portland, vs. Orlando, vs. Phoenix, vs. Portland) and finish 36-30. That would force the Suns to win four of their final five, not impossible considering their home-heavy slate. But the Suns have much tougher competition ahead (vs. Oklahoma City, vs. L.A. Clippers, vs. Denver, at Utah, vs. San Antonio). If the Jazz win the April 24 game over Phoenix, though, the Suns’ margin of error will be too thin to overcome.

West playoff setup
(1) San Antonio vs. (8) Utah

(2) Oklahoma City vs. (7) Dallas

(3) L.A. Lakers vs. (6) Denver

(4) L.A. Clippers vs. (5) Memphis