It was, obviously, an unusual year in the NBA, what with a lockout-shortened 66-game season creating more of a grind for players and coaches, and the standings perhaps not quite reflecting how good or bad some of the team’s in this year’s postseason could be. As the first games tip off, there is more of a sense of unpredictability in these playoffs.
“I think the playoffs are wide open,” Celtics coach Doc Rivers said. “Obviously, there’s the favorites out there, and they’ve earned that right, but I don’t think … everybody else, all of them have confidence, too. Everybody, I think every single team thinks they have a shot this year. I think if it had been 82 games, it would have been the same. This is one of those years that the favorites are the favorites, they deserve to be the favorites. But the underdogs, they’re confident.”
Put the records and the seedings aside, coming into the postseason, here’s how the teams involved stack up:
1. Miami Heat. Considering the way they started the seaspm, the Heat’s 46 wins are a bit disappointing. But they’ve shown that, when they’re dialed in, they can be ferocious defensively and efficient offensively.
2. Chicago Bulls. Point guard Derrick Rose, oft-injured and frequently the recipient of hard fouls, will be a key to this postseason. If Chicago is to get to the Finals, he simply must play better than he did in last year’s playoffs, and withstand physical play.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden give Oklahoma City potent perimeter scoring. But eventually, they’ll need something—anything—out of their big guys on the offensive end.
4. San Antonio Spurs. They’re healthy and still smarting from the first-round disappointment they suffered last year. The Spurs might not have enough for another title run, but they should make it to the Final Four.
5. L.A. Lakers. Dealing with Andrew Bynum and Metta World Peace, coach Mike Brown will have to be part-time psychiatrist to nudge the Lakers into a substantial playoff run, but they loom as a second-round threat to the Thunder.
6. Memphis Grizzlies. If the West is to be wide open, Memphis might be the team to take advantage. They have youth and size on their side, they have a healthy Rudy Gay and they gained important playoff experience last year.
7. Boston Celtics. They were 24-10 in the second half of the year, and if they can get by the Hawks in the first round, they’re in a similar situation as the Lakers—they could be a very tough out for Chicago in Round 2.
8. L.A. Clippers. The matchup with the Grizzlies is about as bad a pairing as the Clippers could have drawn. Frontcourt depth has been a problem all year, and having Reggie Evans and Kenyon Martin behind DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin isn’t much of a solution.
9. Indiana Pacers. The Pacers closed with a 17-6 mark, thanks in large part to the improved play of Danny Granger. He figures to be the key player in whatever sort of run the Pacers can make as the No. 3 seed.
10. New York Knicks. They’re 18-6 under Mike Woodson, with small forward Carmelo Anthony leading the way. That means this is not your average No. 7 seed, and it’s certain that the Heat have taken notice of that.
11. Atlanta Hawks. Josh Smith at center? The Hawks are already without Al Horford, and could be without Zaza Pachulia, too. Coach Larry Drew can be creative with his lineups, so expect to see some interesting combinations in the Hawks’ series against Boston.
12. Dallas Mavericks. The defending champs angled themselves into a matchup with the Thunder, the team they took out in the conference finals last year. The Mavs probably have too much talent to be a No. 7 seed, but they’ve been a disappointment all season.
13. Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets closed on an 11-4 run, but just three of those wins were against playoff teams—they beat the Thunder in the final week and Orlando twice without Dwight Howard.
14. Utah Jazz. The Jazz have enough size, with Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter, to give San Antonio some trouble. But they don’t have a whole lot of experience.
15. Philadelphia 76ers. Give some credit to the Sixers, who put together a late four-game road winning streak (albeit against bad teams) to rescue their spot in the postseason.
16. Orlando Magic. Without Howard, they fizzled to close the year. Their 3-point shooting might be the only thing that gives them a chance to win a game or two.
Predictions
Wide-open? Maybe. Heck, it’s not that hard to imagine a Knicks-Lakers meeting in the Finals. Or Celtics-Grizzlies. But before the season got underway, the best guess was Oklahoma City coming out of the West and Miami in the East. Let’s stick with it.
East first round
1. Bulls over 8. Sixers, 4-1
2. Heat over 7. Knicks, 4-1
3. Pacers over 6. Magic, 4-1
4. Celtics over 5. Hawks, 4-2
East semis
Bulls over Celtics, 4-3
Heat over Pacers, 4-2
East finalsHeat over Bulls, 4-2
West first round
1. Spurs over 8. Jazz, 4-1
2. Thunder over 7. Mavericks, 4-3
3. Lakers over 6. Nuggets, 4-2
4. Grizzlies over 5. Clippers, 4-2
West semis
Spurs over Grizzlies, 4-2
Thunder over Lakers, 4-3
West finals
Thunder over Spurs, 4-2
NBA Finals
Heat over Thunder, 4-1
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