The defending champs almost missed the playoffs. The top seed this year was the top seed last year, but is hoping to avoid the same fate of getting knocked out in the first round. The expected favorite stumbled down the stretch, and the wily veteran darkhorse will be without a starter for six games. The West playoffs—with the Dallas Mavericks at No. 7, the San Antonio Spurs No. 1 again, the Oklahoma City Thunder finishing 7-7 in their last 14, and the Lakers playing without the suspended Metta World Peace—figure to be a wide-open proposition this year.
Upset alert: Mavericks over Thunder
Oklahoma City has championship aspirations, but before they can get there, they’ve got to exorcise the demon that has haunted them since last spring—Mavs forward Dirk Nowitzki, who displayed individual brilliance, averaging 32.2 points and twice topping the 40-point mark, in carrying the Mavericks past the Thunder in five games in last year’s conference finals. Dallas is limping into the postseason, but there is still enough talent on hand to give the Thunder a good first-round run.
Sweep alert: Spurs over Jazz
Utah does have a few things going for it that could help the Jazz avoid a sweep—they have a very deep frontcourt, they are an excellent homecourt team and, after all, the Spurs were knocked out by a No. 8 seed last year. But San Antonio is healthy and rested this time around, not to mention a little bitter about how last season ended.
Coach under pressure: Vinny Del Negro, Clippers
It’s not that Del Negro has done a terrible job with the Clippers—they did enter the final week with a chance to win the Pacific Division crown. But Del Negro’s contract is up at the end of this year and the team’s front office doesn’t seem to have much confidence that he is the guy to take this team to a championship. It will likely take a trip to the conference finals for the Clippers to keep VDN on board.
Stars to watch
Russell Westbrook, Thunder. Westbrook took some heavy criticism for shooting too much in last year’s postseason. The criticism probably went a bit overboard, but the numbers show that Westbrook was too much of a gunner—though he averaged 23.8 points, he shot just 39.4 percent from the field and 29.2 percent on 3-pointers.
Rudy Gay, Grizzlies. Last year was bittersweet for Gay. He got his first taste of the postseason, watching his Grizzlies upset the Spurs in the first round and take OKC to a Game 7 in the conference semis. The problem was, Gay had a shoulder injury and did not participate. He was his usual self this season, and with power forward Zach Randolph slow to return to form after knee surgery, look for Gay to be a big scorer in the playoffs.
Blake Griffin, Clippers. The Clippers have been too dependent on point guard Chris Paul this season, especially after the team lost guard Chauncey Billups to an Achilles injury. That won’t change in the playoffs, but L.A. needs to get a big series out of Griffin in order to get past Memphis.
Andrew Bynum, Lakers. The Nuggets will throw Kosta Koufos, JaVale McGee and Timofey Mozgov at Bynum, and those three should stand no chance of slowing Bynum. But they will try to get under Bynum’s skin with repeated fouls, and he will need to resist frustration and keep his focus.
Players you may not know but will
Gordon Hayward, Jazz. College hoops fans, of course, remember Hayward from his Butler days. But he is becoming an increasingly effective NBA player as the year has gone on. He did not play much in the Jazz finale, but before that, in 12 April games, Hayward averaged 17.2 points on 51.1 percent shooting and 50 percent from the 3-point line.
Devin Ebanks, Lakers. Ebanks is in his second year, and his scoring average (3.6 points) won’t garner much attention. But he has been solid when thrust into the starting lineup, and that is where he will be with small forward Metta World Peace suspended for six postseason games.
Danny Green, Spurs. Green is a classic Spurs role player, overlooked elsewhere but emerging as a productive shooting guard in the team’s starting five. He is obviously not a top option for San Antonio, but he can fill the scoring gap when he needs to—he topped 20 points four times this season.
Can’t miss matchup: Al Jefferson vs. Tim Duncan
Jefferson (19.4 points, 9.7 rebounds) quietly had one of the best seasons of his career. Duncan, even at 36, is still a very effective big man, with averages of 15.4 points and 9.0 rebounds in 28.2 minutes. Jefferson has posted good numbers in his career against Duncan, but according to Basketball-reference.com, Jefferson has a career record of 1-21 against Duncan.
Outlook
No. 1 Spurs over No. 8 Jazz, 4-1
No. 2 Thunder over No. 7 Mavericks, 4-3
No. 3 Lakers over No. 6 Nuggets, 4-2
No. 4 Grizzlies over No. 5 Clippers, 4-2
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