Five storylines to watch with NBA playoffs a month away

Doesn’t seem that long ago that we were wringing our hands over BRI and “system issues”—in fact, it was only about four months ago that the NBA and the players association finally came to a deal on a new collective-bargaining agreement. But already, there are just 30 days left in this wacky lockout-shortened season, and in those 30 days, there is much to be determined about the league’s very cloudy playoff picture.

1. Feeling the Heat. For the second straight day, the Heat played on the road on Monday, and for the second straight day, the Heat were blown out. First it was Oklahoma City on Sunday, where the Thunder handed Miami a 16-point loss, then it was Indiana, where the Heat lost by 15. In the Heat locker room after the Pacers game, there wasn’t much by way of panic. Dwyane Wade called the loss a “speed bump,” and Chris Bosh said, “We’re fine. We’re not even going to remember this a month from now, two months from now.” The Heat are 8-6 since the All-Star break, but all six losses have come against good teams on the road (Utah, Lakers, Orlando, Chicago). Still, the Heat have been turning the ball over too much (38 in the last two games), and after shooting 39.8 percent on 3-pointers before the break, Miami has shot 33.6 percent from the arc since. Wade is probably right, and this is just a speed bump for the Heat, but it’s been a costly bump—they now trail Chicago by 3.5 games in the race for the East’s top seed.

2. Lakers landing. For a team that is clicking offensively as much as the Lakers are—they’re averaging 101.9 points per game in March—there are still plenty of question marks. That starts with a potential rift between coach Mike Brown and star guard Kobe Bryant after Brown put Bryant on the bench for about four minutes late in the fourth quarter during Sunday’s loss to Memphis. Bryant admitted he was upset, but downplayed the incident. The Lakers have been dealing with off-court chatter all year, and it sometimes seems to affect how they play. Bryant can’t allow that to happen, because the Lakers are holding the No. 3 seed and are battling the Clippers and Mavericks to remain there.

3. Frontrunners vs. old hands. Much like Miami, Oklahoma City was a first-half juggernaut that has sort of meandered through the past month. They were 5-5 between March 3 and March 20, but they seem to have found their footing starting with an easy win against the Clippers, followed by a double-overtime thriller over the Timberwolves and the blowout of the Heat. Problem is, the Spurs have steadily crept back into the picture for the No. 1 seed in the West. The Thunder probably have built up enough of a lead to be able to keep the Spurs at arm’s length, but they’ll have to continue their improved play down the stretch.

4. Atlantic tide. Starting with Utah on Wednesday, the Celtics begin a brutal two-week stretch: Jazz, at Minnesota, Heat, Spurs, at Chicago, at Indiana, Sixers, at Miami, Hawks. Eight of those nine are against playoff-bound teams, including three of the four best teams in the league. For the Knicks, who are back to .500 and within shouting distance of the Atlantic Division lead, the possibility of playing the rest of the season without power forward Amare Stoudemire looms.

If you’re a Sixers fan bummed out about the way the team has played lately, you at least have that to cling to. Still, April is no cakewalk for Philadelphia, which plays 10 of its final 14 games on the road, including a season-ending five-game road trip. The Sixers are just 10-12 on the road this year, and in the end, the winner of the Atlantic (which is guaranteed a top four seed) is likely to finish just a couple of games over .500.

5. Western scramble. There are 10 teams over .500 in the Western Conference, and that’s created the kind of mess at the bottom of the race that we’ve seen repeatedly in the last few years. After Monday’s games, Denver, Utah and Houston are all 27-23, which is the current threshold for the No. 7 and 8 seeds, with the improved Suns not far behind. Just ahead of that bunch are Memphis, Dallas and the Clippers, teams that have been erratic the last few weeks. Any of those six teams are a solid winning streak away from grabbing the No. 4 spot and first-round homecourt advantage.